Since the build up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the city council of Beijing have been waging a constant war with cars, and losing. Beijing is home to 17 million residents with 4.7 million cars on the road. But keep in mind that being a major city, vehicles from neighbouring cities as well as delivery trucks travel into Beijing everyday, thus the actual number of cars in Beijing is far higher than that. Just as little as 15 years ago, private car ownership is a rarity and bicycles dotted the city landscape. Today Beijing is the biggest market in the biggest single country car market in the world; China. 13.6 million vehicles were sold in China in 2009, versus 9.4 million in USA. In 2009, almost 580,000 vehicles were registered in Beijing alone. To put it into perspective, Malaysia sells only around 550,000 cars a year. In 2010, spurred by government incentive to boost consumer spending in a slowing global economy, vehicle sales in Beijing was boosted to almost 850,000, bringing the total cars registered in Beijing to around 4.7 million. Theoretically, Beijing's road networks can only support up to around 6.7 million vehicles. However even at today's rate, some of the major highways and roads in Beijing are operating well beyond their capacity. Construction of new roads can never keep up with the rate Beijing residents are buying cars.
Still, car ownership rate in Beijing is still far lower than major cities of Tokyo and Los Angeles, the other capitals of traffic jams in the world. The problem in China is that the city's motorization growth rate is simply too fast for city planners and road construction works to keep up. Beijing already has some of the best public bus and train networks in Asia, but it is still grossly insufficient for a city of its size. In August this year, Beijing hit the news by obtaining the dubious record of having the longest traffic jam in history. An almost 100km long jam in the Beijing-Tibet Highway, also known as China National Highway 110 that went on for almost 20 days. It dispersed intermittently but by September another jam stretching 60km appeared again on the same stretch. The jam was so bad that vehicles only moved as little as a couple of hundred meters in a day. Truck drivers resorted to taking naps underneath their trucks, played card games and cleaned themselves by the roadside. It took some drivers up to 5 days just to cover 100km. It's absolutely crazy. This is the mother of all traffic jams. Images from Associated Press. Truck drivers trapped in the jam for days cleaned, took naps, played cars by the roadside.
I guess that was the last straw that broke the camel's back. This month, Beijing announced its latest and most drastic offensive to date - new vehicle registrations will be capped at 240,000 cars or 20,000 cars a month. It is a drastic move because this will effectively put a lot of car dealers out of business, especially those who did not invest in a 3S facility but only rely on new vehicle sales for their revenue. Close to 70% of potential new car sales will be lost. Obviously this will not go down well with the industry. Beijing is literally going into war with the car industry. Of course there is still the option of registering a car in neighbouring cities. However at present, Beijing already imposed a law that foreign registered cars are banned from certain busy highways / roads like the 5th Ring Road highway during rush hour. This regulation is expected to be further extended to other major road networks within Beijing. Vehicles with a yellow label emission compliance sticker stuck on them will also be banned by 2012 when China gazettes a higher National 5 emission standard that is similar to Euro V. With that, about 120,000 higher polluting old cars will be removed from the road. Other traffic control methods like congestion charge, and limiting access to vehicles on certain days by their last registration plate digit (even / odd numbers) are also being considered.
Recently, IBM commissioned a survey amongst drivers in 20 cities to interview them about their experience with city traffic. Cities covered are Beijing, Mexico City, Johannesburg, Moscow, New Delhi, Sao Paolo, Milan, Buenos Aires, Madrid, London, Paris, Toronto, Amsterdam, Los Angeles, Berlin, Montreal, New York, Houston, Melbourne, Stockholm. I guess IBM wanted to keep the geographical coverage of the survey small whilst maintaining sufficient representation from all continents. Because a majority of cities with the worst traffic are in rapidly developing Asian economies. And no study on traffic congestion is ever complete without mentioning Taipei, Seoul, Tokyo, Bangkok and Jakarta. Especially Bangkok and Jakarta.
Click to enlarge.
The survey was part of a marketing effort by IBM's Global Business Services unit to promote its Traffic Prediction Tool as well as consultation services in setting up integrated monitoring systems for intelligent transport system (ITS). IBM's Traffic Prediction Tool is currently being tested by Singapore's Land Transport Authority in developing a system that provides hourly traffic prediction.
There isn't any single standard methodology to gauge and compare traffic data across different cities. As collection of such data is dependent on the highway management or city council. What constitutes a jam? For what interval period / distance should the average speed be taken? For how long and between what time is rush hour? Which part of the year and weather season? Putting technicalities aside, generally the top cities with the worst traffic in the world are the cities below, in no particular order.
Top cities with the worst traffic jams, some of these were not included in IBM's survey, and listed in no particular order. Beijing. Picture below is showing the 3rd Ring Road Highway
Both Paris and London are some of the oldest cities in Europe. Road expansion, especially in the highly congested inner city / central area is extremely difficult. South-West London is the worst while in Paris', the famed Arc de Triomphe 7-lane wide roundabout is a free for all mayhem. Foreign drivers can spend their time circling around forever without getting out of the trap. Paris is dotted with dirty looking cars with dinged fenders and all. Bump-stop is how Parisians get their tiny Peugeots and Citroen hatchbacks into those ridiculously tight parking spots. Cars will scrape paint and rub fenders switching lanes along the Arc de Triomphe but everyone is cool about it. But the Parisians have a very positive outlook on life. Unlike Londoners, Parisians have very little care for their cars. This is after all a nation where people spend two hours on lunch drinking wine. To the French, enjoying good company with good food, and good wine is far more important that being concerned about cars.
Paris Arc de Triomphe, viewed from the famous Champs-Élysées street heading into the roundabout.
London
Lahore
As for KL-ites and Penang-ites who complain about the jam in Federal Highway, hot spots along LDP, SMART Tunnel, and Penang bridge, as well Singaporeans who complain about the crawl along CTE or PIE etc etc, well you ain't experienced no jam until you've experienced being stuck for hours, in a taxi in rush hour Bangkok or Jakarta. In the case of Bangkok, you have the option to get down, hop onto a motorcycle taxi (yes they have that in Bangkok, and the locals call it motorsai). Even tuk-tuks are useless in such traffic conditions. Hanging on your dear lives as these "motorsai" bike taxis weave in and out the massive "car park" of central Bangkok, adrenaline junkies would want to add this on their to-do list.
Ford Australia have recently released a teaser sketch for the 2011 Ford Territory SUV, which is sold mainly in Australia, but is exported to New Zealand as well as South Africa. The Territory is a unibody large SUV that competes against the Toyota Highlander / Kluger.
At the same time however, we also came across spyshots of the 2011 Ford Territory with very light camo. Image from Sohu.com.
Both the Territory and Explorer (below) share a lot of design similarities, FoMoCo's SUV interpretation of its Kinetic design language.
Moreover, we have already seen official images of the T6 generation 2011 Ford Ranger (above). And given that the Everest is an SUV version of the Ranger, expect very little change for the front fascia. We can now have a pretty good idea of what to expect for the next generation Ford Everest. The current generation Everest did not quite cut it in the market, failing to make a strong impression in the all important Thai and South African market. Toyota's aging Fortuner still pulls a considerable lead in this segment, followed by Mitsubishi's Pajero Sport.
Other contenders in the PPV-SUV segment that are very popular within ASEAN trade bloc markets (especially Thailand and Indonesia) as well as South Africa and Argentina.
Thailand is also known as the Detroit of the East, a moniker that was most probably first coined by Ford Motor Co.'s during the company's first wave of expansion there in the 90s. Thailand is the largest manufacturer of trucks outside the USA, plus the local landscape have always been synonymous with low rider pick-up trucks, alongside three-wheeler / converted kei-minivan tuk-tuk taxis. Malaysia, the other motor manufacturing hub in the region have always sold itself to investors by differentiating themselves as the largest passenger car market in the region. Around 65% of vehicles in the country are passenger cars. The tagline may not be relevant very much longer though.
The latest vehicle registration statistics point that the Thai motor industry might close the year with a bang, a record 800,000 cars sold. But the more interesting news is that as of November 2010, sales of passenger cars already surpassed pick-up trucks, albeit by a thin margin. Out of the 707,235 vehicles sold, 307,629 were passenger cars (43.5%) versus 305,715 pick-ups sold (43.2%). The trend in the short term suggest that Thailand is gradually shifting to become a passenger car dominated market, as Thais grow more affluent, increasing urbanization as well as the new government policies which favours manufacturing of light small passenger cars, compare to the previous policy of favouring pick-up body type vehicles and its derivatives; PPVs (passenger pick-up vehicles) or ladder frame SUVs to you and me.
Nissan's Teana also pulled ahead of Honda's Accord, making the King of Comfort as the current closest rival to the defacto market leader Toyota Camry.
Although between 65% to 70% of cars sold in Malaysia are passenger cars, out of these, only 30% of the market is realistically open for taking by foreign car markers. Close to 70% of the passenger cars sold here were made by domestic brands of Proton and Perodua. However it should also be noted that Proton outsold Kia, Hyundai and Ford in Thailand.
Thailand is a bustling developing market of 67.7 million people. Out of which more than 12 million live within the Bangkok and greater Bangkok area, whose size is slightly smaller than Klang Valley. In contrast, Klang Valley has about 7.2 million people. Now you know why the traffic jam is so terrible in Bangkok. However, I am of the opinion that they have a far more reliable train system, the Thai BTS (similar to LRT) and MRT rail line that actually gets you to more places that you need to go compared to our two LRT lines, and our completely hopeless KTM Komuter.
Vehicle sales figures via Bangkok Post Motoring. Unfortunately 2010 will also mark the end of Bangkok Post's Motoring pullout. From 2011 onwards, BP Motoring will be merged with their lifestyle section pullout. Of late, I noticed the content pages of BP Motoring have been reduced. Too bad. It's hard to find good quality English publication on the Thai motoring scene.
More than a year ago, we got wind that Honda Motor Co. was planning to revive the previous second generation Honda City sedan as a developing market model. At first, we thought that this will be a candidate for Thailand's upcoming Eco-Car plan. However it was later revealed that this role will be filled by the recently unveiled Honda Brio hatch, which will be sold in Thailand and India. The City however, was given a new lease of life in China, as the first model of a new Honda budget sub-brand in China called Li Nian (Everus in English). The Li Nian S1 however will be sold in both 1.3 and 1.5-litre model. No further details was revealed about the specs but the Chinese press suggested that the previous generation City's CVT transmission will be dropped in favour of sharing the same 5-speed automatic used by the current City. Note the sunroof.
The Li Nian brand will be sold by Guangqi Honda (formerly known as Guangzhou Honda), which also sells the City, Jazz and , Crosstour, Accord and Odyssey. While Honda's other local partner Dongfeng Honda distributes the Civic and Civic Hybrid, CRV, and Spirior (Accord Euro).
The presentation slide above, shown during the 2010 edition of the KL International Motor Show suggests that Proton is not under any illusion about the market potential of electric cars. A EV rollout study under the working title Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Roadmap is being studied and will be tabled to the cabinet January 2011. This week, a roundtable discussion titled 1st Malaysia Electric Vehicle Roundtable took place on 15-Dec, organized by the Malaysian Automotive Institute, MAI. The jury is still out on how effective is this newly established MAI, given that it is merely an extension of MITI, filled by government bureaucrats, with almost zero representation from people who are directly involved in the auto industry. While the government bureaucrats do their thing, there are a lot of lessons to be learned from countries to have already adopted similar policies.
The Proton Exora Range Extender Hybrid that won the Range Extender EV category of the Brighton to London Future Challenge. The only other competitor in the segment was the Vauxhall Ampera (European Chevy Volt). The Exora Range Extender is a series hybrid. A 407cc rotary engine made by Wankel AG acts as an on-board generator for the lithium ion polymer batteries made by Toshiba. The powertrain concept is similar to the Chevy Volt, as is the Audi A1 e-tron concept. However the A1 e-tron has a rotary engine made by Austrian consultant AVL.
The range extender wankel engine in the Audi A1 e-tron, made by AVL.
The Saga EV is a pure EV, powered by lithium ion polymer batteries made by LG Chem which also supplies the batteries for GM's Chevy Volt.
Lessons from China
At about the same time the Proton Exora Range Extended Hybrid won the Brighton to London Future Challenge (Range Extended class category), a number of disconcerting news were coming out of China, often said to be the fastest and highest potential electric / hybrid vehicle market in the developing world. BYD announced that its F3e EV sedan will be put on the backburner, and that it sold only 54 e6 EV and 290 F3DM plug-in hybrid. Toyota sold a total of less than 4,000 units of Prius over the last 3 years.
The stillborn BYD F3e
I think people ought to pause and think about what does this mean for EV market in the developing world. There is no doubt about the future of EVs in the developed world. In Europe, USA and Japan, you can't stay in the business without a hybrid or an EV. But in a developing society where people are still trying to meet their immediate needs, environmental concerns rarely appear in their list of priorities.
Remember that BYD is backed by one of the richest man in the world Warren Buffett, and Mr. Buffett knows quite a thing or two about predicting what will work and what won't. At least he has a much better record than the rest of us. The holy grail of EV performance is in the batteries, and BYD is the 2nd largest manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries in the world. China is known for its cheapness, but not many know that Chinese universities is on track to overtake Japan and USA in patent filing by 2011.
The reason given by BYD for shelving of the F3e is because of "ancillary environment," that the necessary infrastructure to support widescale roll out of EVs are not yet adequate. But it is not that the Chinese government is sitting idle. Currently, EV owners in 5 EV pilot cities in China (Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Wuhan) are eligible for subsidies up to about USD 9,000, while local governments are entitled to USD 8,800 subsidy for EV purchase. Shenzhen, one of the pilot city will have 7,500 charging stations built by end of 2010, but will rapidly increase to 12,750 stations by 2012.
Currently, 40 electric BYD e6 are used as taxis by the Pengcheng Electric Vehicle Taxi Co. Ltd in Shenzhen. China South Grid, the local power utility company operates two charging stations, one of them with 6 quick chargers and the other with 3 standard chargers. In Beijing, the up to USD 1.5 billion has been allocated for the next 3 years to support "new energy vehicles," the Chinese government terminology for EVs and hybrids. Additionally, China has also contracted Israeli firm Project Better Place to roll out EV charging infrastructure in the pilot cities, with Chery as its vehicle partner.
Chery Riich G5 is the test car for Project Better Place China.
Project Better Place's sells on an idea that you buy an electric car in the same way you lease a cellphone from a service provider. You pay a minimum fee to enter a contract to use certain air time / data plan. Likewise, you enter a contract with the EV service provider who then leases you a car, which you can then swap a flat battery for a fully charged one at a battery swap station, in the same way how you will swap a cellphone battery. Lengthy charge time and high battery cost problem solved.
Below is a demo battery swap station in Yokohama, Japan. It is built on a ramp for demonstration purposes. The actual station will be at ground level, with all the mechanicals hidden underground.
The last bit coming up is the trump card for China. The single most important reason why it is in the interest of China to aggressively push to electrification of automobiles - over 95% of rare earth metals required for electric motor and battery production are located in China. Presently, China relies up to a third of its oil imports from Africa. Politically China is accused of supporting rogue African regimes like Sudan. By developing a domestic EV industry, China can better manage its foreign relations by relying less on rouge states. Presently, China already has enough on its plate to deal with - North Korea, which threatens to flood China with refugees if the DPRK's stability is threatened. Electrification of automobiles will also allow China to flex its political muscle more. When Japan exerted its authority on the disputed Daioyu islands during the September 2010 Chinese trawler incident, China halted exports of rare earth metals to Japan. Needless to say, Japan bowed out and release the captain and the crew unconditionally.
The point of all the above? China has a much clearer policy roadmap, some of the best universities, an existing local battery manufacturing base, and far more financial resources to develop its domestic EV manufacturing industry. Even so, the progress have been slower than expected. Malaysia meanwhile, with nothing other than a vaguely worded National Green Technology Policy, non-existent EV charging infrastructure. Plus, China has participation of multiple car manufacturers, both domestic (BYD, Chery and Geely) and foreign (VW, GM, Toyota, and Nissan). Malaysia meanwhile, relies solely on Proton for its EV push. Perodua, being nothing more than an outpost of Toyota and has little intellectual property to call its own. Thus the company is relies on whatever plans Daihatsu decides to pursue. And clearly, Perodua's role within the Toyota-Daihatsu group is to remain as a maker of cheap small passenger cars for the region. Fancy alternative powertrain does not fit into the picture. So if the country wants to move forward technologically, it can't rely on Perodua. Within the Toyota group, the powertrain strategy is to allocate resources for electrification and hybridization to Toyota models first, while Daihatsu gets pie-in-the-sky and PR lip service concepts like precious metal-free liquid feed fuel cell (PMfLFC), which is a really long fancy name for fuel-cell vehicle. Not to mention that the technology is easily another 20 years or more away for mass market appeal. The logic given by Perodua's MD Datuk Aminar Rashid Salleh that budget small cars are not suitable for electrification doesn't really make sense when you consider the future plans revealed by PSA (Peugeot iOn, Citroen C-Zero, a rebaged Mitsubishi i-MiEV), VW (Up! EV) and even Daihatsu's big brother Toyota (iQ EV previewed as FT-EV Concept). In fact, one of the main reasons Suzuki went to bed with VW is specifically because even small cars need alternative powertrain in the future and Suzuki is too small to take on the task alone. Even India is pushing hard to rollout an EV version of its small hatchback Tata Indica Vista EV. A fleet of Indica Vista EV is currently under trial in Norway by Tata's Norwegian EV technology partner Miljøbil Grenland. Of course the most logical step to promote EV is via small cars! It is after all the next step up from electric golf carts. You don't expect our current battery technology to be powerful enough to move larger sedans do you? Hence the need for cross collaboration to deal with the cost issue.
Hopefully the final EV rollout infrastructure plan will sufficiently address these issues.
Unanswered questions for Malaysia's EV push via Proton
Who will oversee the construction and operation of these stations? TNB? MITI? Home Ministry? City council? Who will determine the standards for electric vehicle charging and how will users be charged? To what extent has TNB been consulted on EV rollout plan. If every single house on my block charges a car at night, surely it will overload the existing allocated power line capacity. How will EVs be registered and insured? Presently, local vehicles are taxed based on their engine capacity, and engine numbers are required for insurance and vehicle registration purposes. So what happens to an EV that has 2 or 4 traction motors in place of an engine?
And what's the environmental benefit of going EV? Other countries choose to support EVs because there are already plans to increase the market share of renewable energy sources. In Malaysia, 63% of our power comes from gas, 21% from coal and only 7% comes from renewable hydro power. The remaining are other forms of fuel. Shifting vehicle energy source from oil to batteries will merely shift our reliance on fossil fuel from transport to power generation.
As it is, we cannot even maintain a proper sidewalk that is free of missing drainage covers or cracked / broken pathways. What more about maintaining outdoor charging units, when there are associated safety issues from the high voltage networks running beneath. The city council cannot even maintain and build decent bus stops. And we are to expect the city council to maintain EV charging facilities that require maintainence and monitoring of the highest standards? Malaysian motorists are quite a douche bag bunch of idiots. If our motorists can't respect simple rules like use of disabled parking bays, what's there to stop that annoying imbecile Ah Beng in his tricked up Toyota Vios ala TRD style from parking at the EV charging bay?
At Somerset Shopping Mall, Singapore.
Speaking of charging standard, there are currently no globally adopted standard for fast charging. Standard charge, which takes between 8 to 14 hours is not much of an issue as it relies on domestic power plugs. Rapid charging, which takes less than 10 minutes for up to 80% charge however is a serious issue. Rapid charging requires 3-phase power supply and most domestic house power lines are setup for single phase only.
In the USA, the Society of Automotive Engineers have established the SAEJ1772 as the standard socket, designed by Yazaki as the standard charging socket for both standard charge (Level 1) and fast charge (Level 2).
Level 1 charging will take between 8 to 14 hours for a full charge, depending on vehicle size. While Level 2 charging cuts it down to 4 to 6 hours. The fastest Level 3 charge takes as little as 10 minutes. The standard for Level 3 charge however is still work in progress. GM (Chevy Volt) and Nissan (Leaf) are current models adopting the SAEJ1772 standard.
Europe however has a different charging standard, simply because Europe's power transmission network are setup to supply a different voltage. In Europe, the IEC 62196 Type-1 and Type-2 are the standards being considered. It is supported by Daimler, VW, BMW, and Porsche. Likewise in Japan, the prevailing standard is CHAdeMO, backed by Tokyo Electric Power, Mitsubishi, Toyota as well as non-Japanese companies like Robert-Bosch, Pacific Gas and Electric, Korea Electric Power and PSA Group. Proton's EV concept cars were built to comply to the CHAdeMo standard. China is also working on a separate standard independently, probably driven in part by its political ambitions.
Consumers need to be convinced not just on the practical aspects but also on the durability of EVs.
The proper way to do this
There is another solution closer to home, but it is from a country that Dr Mahatir shares a lot of animosity with - Singapore. Greenlots is a Singaporean start up that offers EV charging solutions. Currently Greenlots have set up charging networks in Germany, partnering with Germany power Mainova. In October this year, Greenlots was chosen to be Singapore's first CSP (charging service provider). Together with Robert Bosch and Singtel, Greenlots will be tasked to design, develop, operate and maintain up to 60 charging stations and 3 quick charge stations by 2011. Like all things Singaporean, there is a lot of regulation, open tender and and clear policies on how things are supposed to happen and by when. A budget of SGD 20 million was allocated for EV Taskforce for the next 3 years.
In May 2009, the Singaporean government first presented to the public a plan to test viability of EVs on the island state by launching a pilot test programme. An inter-agency EV Taskforce was setup, co-chaired by the Energy Market Authority (EMA) and Land Transport Authority (LTA). Other members in the taskforce include Agency for Science, Technology, and Research (A*STAR), Economic Development Board (EDB), Ministry of Environment and Water Resources (MEWR), Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), National Environment Agency (NEA), Housing & Development Board (HDB) and SPRING Singapore. This will ensure that building of charging stations will comply to all needs and regulations of the road transport authority, local city council and housing authority.
Mid 2010, a competitive open tender was opened via Gebiz tender portal and by October 2010, a consortium comprising of Robert Bosch, Singtel and Greenlots won the bid. Robert Bosch will provide the outdoor charging units while Greenlots will provide the indoor units and Singtel will provide the web and mobile platform for building / charging network operators to operate and charge for the service and EV owners to use the service. EV owners will be able to monitor, control, and locate the nearest charging outlet using a smartphone.
Park, plug it in, login using your smartphone to control, monitor and pay for the charges.
Singaporean Mitsubishi i-MiEV (with Research-Development plates) on demo.
Consistent with Keynesian economics theory, governments should limit their involvement in business but increase spending on infrastructure and policy matters. The Singaporean government does not directly back any single company, but instead invites participants from the corporate sector to join the test programme. Everything you need to know about the programme can be found here. I like how easy it is to find all the necessary information, everything is laid out clearly and is transparent. All interested car makers are invited to participate. That way, Singapore is able to leverage on the cumulative expertise and experience and is able to spearhead things much faster than a country who choose to back only a single company, who chooses to award contracts to a "preferred list of contractors" without any open tender, evaluated on very dubious terms. So far in Singapore, Mitsubishi and Renault-Nissan, two of the biggest player in the EV sector have already confirmed their participation. The Mitsubishi i-MiEV is the first production passenger EV car in the world while Nissan Leaf is the first EV commercially on sale (i-MiEV is only for lease) has responded and 25 units of the i-MiEVs will be delivered to the EV taskforce while Renault-Nissan will be sending a fleet of EVs, expected to include Nissan Leaf and Renault Fluence ZE by end of 2011.
Until a reputable partner, independent of any interest in the ruling party takes an active role in pushing this along, the EV drive will nothing more than lip service and will eventually become another one of the many grand projects that failed to live up to its promise simply because not sufficient attention was paid to the more mundane basic issues. Or at worst, a thinly veiled attempt to increase demand for electric power. It is common knowledge amongst the public that under a deal made during the Mahatir era that makes little business sense, TNB is forced to purchase power from independent power producers (IPPs) at higher prices, irrespective of the country's power demand. The IPPs meanwhile, produces power from subsidized fuel. And the Ali Baba deals continues...
Hans Cheong is a former automotive industry executive. In another life, he was a former motor industry consultant. He can be contacted at autoindustrie[at]gmail[dot]com
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