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Monday, August 31, 2009

Chevy Cruze launched in Singapore.




Earlier in March this year, HICOM-Chevrolet announced that the Cruze will be launched in Malaysia by July 2009, singing many praises to the car. And what a disappointment it was. It is now September and it looks like the Cruze have been delayed indefinitely. Certainly it is not doing anything to bolster Chevy's already brand image. Despite its low brand presence, there are still a small section of the local motoring public who were really keen on the car, and these group of "automotive mavens" were willing to look beyond the badge and recognise the Cruze's superior European tuned ride and handling characteristics - those in the niche European C-segment market who at the moment can only choose between a Peugeot 308 and a Ford Focus. But how many more of these people are willing to put their money on the Chevrolet brand when even HCSB themselves don't keep to their word on have been announced in the media earlier? If the delay is due to the impending NAP review, shouldn't there be a follow-up announcement explaning this to the public rather than laying low and expect the people to forget about it? Plus, NAP review was announced way back in end 2008. If the delay is due to NAP, surely most people would be reasonable enough to understand the reasons behind.

Down south in Singapore however, things are looking good. GM Overseas Distribution Corporation (Singapore) have just launched the Cruze there on Aug-18, along with a new 3S outlet in Ubi Road, Singapore. Since its first overeas launch (outside of Korea, where the car is sold under GM's Daewoo badge) in China in December 2008, 53,000 units of the Cruze have been sold. More than half of them were sold in China. Within 5 days of its launch in Singapore, GM managed to secure 100 orders for the car. Download the Singaporean Cruze here. Press release can also be obtained here.

Check out the German video below on the Cruze. Handling seems pretty neutral.


Related link :
Chevy Cruze - coming to Malaysia this July '09
Chevy Cruze and the Korean Stigma

Saturday, August 29, 2009

After Porsche, Volkswagen to acquire Suzuki?




In recent press conference during the launch of the new VW Polo in the Italian island of Sardinia, VW's uber supremo Ferdinand Piech revealed to the press that VW is looking to acquire 3 more brands after Porsche. When asked by the press if one of them was Suzuki, Piech merely answered only, as quoted by Automotive News, that "he has great respect for the company, which, like Piech, has a reputation for technical expertise."

Just last week, VW CEO Martin Winterkorn told a German business publication Manager Magazin, that Suzuki would be an interesting partner for VW because of its competency in small cars. The combination of these two news sent the German media into a frenzy, with reports saying VW could take a 10 percent stake in Suzuki as the first step toward a full takeover.

It is Ferdinand Piech's (as well as Martin Winterkorn's) ambition to see VW challenge Toyota for the crown of being the most powerful car company in the world. 2 years ago, VW announced that it intends to challenge Toyota for the title by 2015. At that time, the announcement sounded hollow and nothing but a lofty ambition. 2 years later with VW, despite the current market situation, still announcing profits and sometimes record growth in certain markets / business units while Toyota is rapidly bleeding red, nobody is laughing anymore, but are instead sitting up and listen. VW's premium brand Audi is on its record 13th year run of record breaking growth.

Automotive News Europe columnist Paul Mcveigh comments that "Piech is doing what he has always done throughout his 46-year automotive career: spreading hints and rumors that confuse, baffle and weaken his intended target."

Osamu Suzuki needs to be careful. Despite cracking the age of 76-years old, Ferdinand Piech is showing no signs of slowing down. The last person who tried to take on Piech, Porsche's former CEO Wendelin Wiedeking, ended up being "pwn3d."

Suzuki is the top selling car in India (Maruti 800 and Alto, via local partner Maruti) and Japan (Wagon-R). Suzuki draws its strength in developing markets, especially in India and Pakistan, by leveraging on its success in the motorcycle industry to attract first time car buyers (and previous motorcycle users) to its low cost cars. VW's largest presence is via its subsidiary brand Skoda. It is the most popular foreign car company in China, now the world's largest car market. VW's premium brand is now the top selling luxury car brand in Germany, overtaking Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

Related link :
Suzuki Turns 100
The end of Wiedeking-era Porsche

Friday, August 28, 2009

Potential Transmission Defect in Second Generation Toyota RAV4




The New York Times carried this report earlier this week:
Although customer satisfaction studies have often given Toyota’s RAV4 “cute ute” high marks for quality, some owners are furious at the automaker because it failed to warn them of a serious transmission problem. Had Toyota warned them, they say, they could have avoided expensive repairs.

Benjamin Birkbeck of Yarmouth, Me., who owns a 2002 RAV4, is one of those consumers. His wife, Rhonda, was trying to merge into traffic when a suddenly faulty transmission meant she was “almost run over by a semitruck,” he wrote in a complaint on the Center for Auto Safety Web site. “This is a safety issue. My wife was almost killed.”

Dianna Radford of Albuquerque, N.M., had to pay about $4,000 for a repair on her 2002 model. “I have owned Toyotas for 12 years and I will never buy another one, the way I was treated,” she said.

They are not alone. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has more than 120 complaints about transmission problems with the 2001–2003 RAV4, of which Toyota sold about 250,000. Often the blame is put on the engine control module (E.C.M.), which tells the transmission what to do.
Read more here.

As I know, there is only 1 production site for RAV4 models - the Tahara plant in Japan, which is also a main production site for most Lexus models. So if there is any issue with the car, it would mean RAV4 models sold between 2001 to 2003 in all over the world are affected. Toyota have not issued any recalls for the RAV4 so far, neither have they commented if the problem is only specific to North American market RAV4s. According to the report, the problem only affects RAV4 models manufactured between 2001 and 2003, meaning the pre-facelift (minor change) models.

Almost all the second generation RAV4 models on this side of the world (Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia) were imported from Japan via parallel importers. Like many domestic Japanese Toyota models, there are far too many variations in their trim level. Generally the facelift models can be identified with a more modern looking front grille.
Pre-minor change model
Minor change model
Note that the above only refers to Japanese domestic market models. North American market models have a slightly different front fascia and US Federal regulation required amber coloured turn signal lights.

A large number of RAV4 models were imported into various countries via parallel importers. The problem with buying a grey market / parallel imported cars is finding out its service history. Even if you manage to track down the service history, you are almost not going to be notified of any safety recalls issued because the local official Toyota distributor will not be responsible cars not sold by them, and neither will they have the contact details of these owners in their database.

But so far, there does not seem to be any widespread / major transmission issues reported (within the local automotive community) by owners of second generation RAV4. Still, if you happen to own one of these models, you might want to be alert of any issues.

Related link :
Recall on China Market Toyota Camry - Defective Brakes
Product Recalls

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Audi R8 Electric Coming Soon?




We are only about 1 month away from September's Internationale Automobil Ausstellung (IAA), better known as Frankfurt International Motor Show. Audi AG board member and head global sales and marketing Peter Schwarzenbauer have hinted that there will be an electric R8-like car to be unveiled in Frankfurt. He did not confirm if it will be a R8 or if it is a pure electric vehicle / petrol-electric hybrid / a plug-in type petrol-electric hybrid.

“I’m not confirming R8, but at the top end and something very, very sporty, we are going to show in the upcoming Frankfurt motor show in September what we think the right way is of getting into the electric era is,” said Audi AG board member Peter Schwarzenbauer.

More hints of a German auto industry "civil war," below are comments by Peter Schwarzenbauer in an interview with Australian publication GoAuto, during the launching of Audi Australia's "Lighthouse" - the world's largest Audi showroom.

“If you go back to the past, all major new technology was introduced top-down. I have a hard time to understand that now the only discussion about electric cars is very small cars.”

“BMW has 500 Minis running around with batteries, Smart on the Mercedes side will have a battery in it and I have a hard time to understand what the business case should be in all of this, because if you look around the current battery package to really drive a car around costs roughly €12,000 to €15,000 ($A20,700 to $A25,900) – just the battery package."

“So now if you take a small car, which also costs around €12,000 to $15,000, that means you are doubling the price, just by putting a battery (in it). I don’t know how much environmentally you have to be convinced that you spend the double of the money to drive electric. So I don’t see that this is a real business case and I think the electric car technology has to be introduced like all the other technologies in the world – top down. ”
However, we should take note that Audi's parent company Volkswagen is also rumoured to be introducing an EV version of its Up! concept small car in Frankfurt.

“Volkswagen is going the direction of bringing a small car to the market and we think for a premium brand it makes much more sense to start a top-down approach, so
our approach is to start at the high end. The one we are launching in Frankfurt, or showing in Frankfurt, will be for the Audi brand and I’m sure that Volkswagen has also something around electric in Frankfurt,”
says Peter Schwarzenbauer

VW is surely not following the "top-down" approach. Seems like a bit of a contradiction within the VAG as far as their EV introduction strategy is concerned. Can't help but wonder wouldn't it be a better strategy to just not comment on what others are doing? Plus, there is no real need to justify to the press their rationale.

Also, I need to point out that Toyota didn't control the hybrid market by introducing hybrids via a "top-down" approach. Toyota did not start rolling out hybrids with Lexus. Instead it created a new bespoke model; the Prius, and a new sub-brand - Hybrid Synergy Drive. And as Toyota proved it - the "top-down" approach is not always the most logical path, because common sense will tell you that the image of clean-green technology is not exactly in harmony with that of a large, elitist powerful luxury car.

Then again, Audi might counter saying that Toyota is an exception and Toyota could afford to lose money on the early Prius models sold because the project was "indirectly funded" by the Japanese government, a charge which TMC staunchly denies but every top executive in the industry knows this is the case. Plus, Audi's objective might be to make a public statement that hybrids / EVs are not necessarily boring, but can be a credible alternative powertrain, worthy of a high performance car like a R8. Toyota is also doing the same thing with the Lexus LF-A hybrid supercar.

But I would like to ask Audi - why should Audi feel the need to take it on themselves to change the public perception on EVs / hybrids? Why not leave the task to someone like say...BMW / or even Ferrari (also rumoured to be working on a hybrid) - the people who depend more desperately on having a sporty high performance image and are having a harder time adapting to economical, green cars. Or best still, VW Group's own Lamborghini brand. After the last hooray shout for the outgoing Murceilago; the Reventon, the next Lambo is very likely to have to adopt an alternative powertrain, just like Ferrari and Porsche, to keep those EU bureaucrats in Brussels happy.

High driving performance is not exactly a top USP (unique selling point) for a brand like Audi. You don't expect the public to eventually go "Oh BMW EVs / hybrids are more powerful or are better to drive. Other hybrids / EVs are lousy." Come on, a hybrid is a hybrid. An EV is an EV. As it is, people don't go "Oh VW diesels are good. BMW diesels are so much poorer." Plus, VW made its mark on its famous TDI diesel engines and twin-charge TSI engines with the humble Golf and Polo. So again, not ever automotive technology have to follow a top-down approach. Not even for parent company Volkswagen.

Also to be unveiled by Audi in Frankfurt is the new A8, R8 Spyder (below, do Germans name their convertibles Spyder / Spider with an "i" or "y"?), A5 Sportback and the R8-like electric (dubbed R8E).

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

World's Largest Audi Showroom Opens in Australia




Audi Australia recently unveiled the world's largest Audi showroom in the world in Sydney - dubbed in Audi lingo as "Audi Lighthouse". The "lighthouse" concept is a new corporate / brand identity for all new Audi showrooms. Prior to this, Audi also unveiled another "Audi Lighthouse" center in Shanghai, China.

The facility will not only house the sales and service centre but will also serve as Audi Australia's new corporate headquarters. As such, the facility is completely owned by Audi Australia and not by any dealer.


No doubt, the investment does not make any prudent financial sense and Audi
is not expected to fully recoup its investment in the near future. But there is a political dimension behind the building of this mega-showroom. Audi Australia, like many of its markets outside Germany and China (its 2 largest markets), feels that the brand is under represented and independent Audi dealers need to increase their investments in their facilities. The flagship Audi Lighthouse in Sydney will set a new benchmark for all dealers. Over the next 12 months, 7 out of the 34 Audi dealers in Australia will be either renovating or relocating their existing showrooms to a new "Terminal" style building.

In any car business, relationship between dealers and car distributor / principal is always tricky but both know very well that they need each other to survive. Dealers need the marketing support and vehicle allocation from the principal. It is impossible for distributors to completely undertake the task of selling cars in a country, on their own - not only does this distract car companies from the core business of building and designing cars, the capital investment required to setup and run 3S centres in all the major market centres is just too high. Lee Iacocca once said the dealers are your first customers, so take good care of them. In a large country like USA, where Lee comes from, dealers are even more critical. Cars delivered to dealers are considered sold.

But some form of presence under 100% principal controlled branch outlets is necessary to set a benchmark. In other words, it's the way car companies "bully" non-compliant dealers into meeting their standards. Left on their own, each dealer will end up doing their own thing and this lack of standardisation in operations is detrimental to the overall brand health. Customers will get a different level of service quality from one outlet to another.

Locally, the best example of this is to compare amongst the 3 main Japanese brands. Both UMW Toyota and Edaran Tan Chong Motor (Nissan) maintain a small number of 100% distributor owned outlets while Honda Malaysia depend completely on dealers run network. A couple of weeks ago an owner of a new City was complaining to me that Honda outlets don't follow a standard operating time. Some open by 8am, some by 9am. Some open on weekends while some don't. He works in sales and travels a lot, thus he does not service his car on any one single outlet all the time. So it's rather inconvenient for him. In the case of UMWT and ETCM - the difference in the standard of service between dealers and branches outlets is far lower.

Large Audi outlets in Malaysia (Euromobil owned) are still based on the 90s era "hangar" style concept. However given the low sales potential here relative to the larger markets, I doubt the bosses at Ingolstadt will turn their attention here anytime soon. Guess they need to put their more important markets in order first.

Audi Australia is part of the greater "Route 15" plan. The "Route 15" is Audi's corporate speak to attain its target of being the number 1 luxury brand in the world by 2015, by selling 15 million Audi cars globally. The brand has already conquered its domestic German market as well as China. Audi currently trails behind Mercedes-Benz and BMW but has overtaken Lexus in the Australian luxury car segment sales charts.

Audi's rapid rise in Australia has shaken up the status quo and attracted a fair bit of mud-slinging comments by bosses of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Lexus. One former MD of BMW Australia even dismissed Audi as not a true luxury brand just on the basis that its cars are not RWD. Audi responded by posting a full page ad on the next day, with an Allroad and a caption below saying "Not RWD."

The boss of Lexus Australia too dismissed Audi's chase for numbers when Audi overtook Lexus and hinted that Audi cars are heavily discounted. He also said that Lexus focus is delivering customer satisfaction and not chasing a sales target. A comment which any business school student of any worth can tell is bollocks.

The head of Audi Australia, Joerg Hofmann, has this to say during the Lighthouse launch :
“These people (rival brand), they are bit desperate sometimes - they can't understand why we are so successful,” he said. “Fair enough, we can smile about it, because we overtake them all very soon.

“They start throwing dirt and say we discount and whatever kind of crap comes to their mind. I mean, I'm bored about it. We just move on and in two or three years we are ahead of all of them,” said Mr Hofmann, adding that eight of Audi’s 34 dealers nationwide already outsell their German-brand counterparts in their area.

Hofmann said: “We will have the most profitable year this year. We will achieve our financial budget to Germany by more than $1 million. That is, Audi Australia will make $1 million more profit than was in the plan.

“You can only build new dealerships, invest in brands and do sponsorships and whatever if you're profitable. You can't make profit if you discount. All our dealers make money. Our dealer average return on sales is above two per cent, even in the (financial) crisis. Our benchmark dealers are (making) between three and four per cent (profit on turnover).

"The Volkswagen Group has cash liquidity of €12 billion ($A20.6b), almost €9 billion ($A15.4b) of which came from Audi," said Mr Hofmann. "Stuttgart (Mercedes-Benz) and Munich (BMW) lost money in the first quarter of this year. By achieving our profit and sales targets we will overtake them.”

Mr Hofmann said the latest dealer satisfaction survey ranked Audi among Australia’s most sought-after new-car franchises.

“In 2004 the Audi franchise was certainly not the most attractive one, and we were 20th, 24th, 18th, something like this. And now we are number one or number two.

“Our dealers make money. A dealer has to make profit. If he makes profit he is able and willing to invest and then he is happy. And this is reflected in dealer satisfaction,” he said, before refuting claims that Audi models were therefore over-priced.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Upcoming / Future Lexus models - 2009 to 2013




This is a bit old as most people would have seen this in many other websites. So below is just a short summary :
  1. Official sketch of a concept compact premium hatchback Lexus.
  2. Concept design to be unveiled on September 15 2009 at the Frankfurt International Motor Show, Stand C11 in Hall 8, 1545 hours local German time.
  3. Series production car to be unveiled in 2010 Geneva Motor Show.
  4. Expected launch / series production start by early-2011.
  5. To be named Lexus CT series
  6. Contrary to many publications, Lexus CT is not likely to be a hybrid only model. Engine option will include a 2.0-litre petrol and a 1.8-litre petrol-electric hybrid currently used in the Prius. A 2.4-litre petrol-electric hybrid from Lexus HS250h / Camry Hybrid is possible but is still undecided, mainly due to concerns high cost and potential cannibalisation on sales of IS250.
  7. Drivetrain configuration will be front-wheel drive, making it the second FWD Lexus after the HS250h. It will be more Audi A3 than BMW 1-series. Toyota, being a more rational / market demand driven company have none of the baggage like BMW and thus does not need to insist on RWD. It actually makes a lot more sense given that A3 outsold 1-series in Europe (expected to be CT's main market) and Toyota is a company that always follows where the market is going.
  8. To be positioned between Toyota Prius and Lexus IS250.
  9. Introduction in North America is not confirmed and is unlikely, given the low market potential of hatchbacks in USA.
Other upcoming Lexus models :
1. IS250C (folding hardtop convertible IS250) : September 2009
2. IS F-R : late 2010
Also known as IS-F "Evolution." 100kg lighter than a standard IS-F through greater use of lightweight materials (i.e. carbon fibre). Also includes carbon ceramic brakes and a more powerful V8 engine.
3. LF-A hybrid supercar : 2010
4. GS Full Model Change : 2011
5. LS Full Model Change : 2012
6. IS Full Model Change : 2013

Related link
Lexus IS-F Evolution and Lexus LS 2010 Minor Change

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Hilux Vigo VN Turbo launched in Thailand





The Hilux is the one of the oldest 1-tonne truck model on sale at the moment. All of its competitors have replaced their models with newer generation iterations - Navara, Triton, Ranger. Only Isuzu's D-Max originated from about the same year as the Hilux (Hilux was introduced in 2005). Despite its age, the Hilux continues to dominate the 1-tonne pick-up truck segment. In Thailand, the Hilux's largest market, the closest competitor to it is Isuzu's D-Max.


One of the main criticisms against the Hilux is its lack of power - only 102bhp in 2.5-litre common rail diesel turbo (non-intercooled) guise. In fact, I believe the Hilux has the lowest power output in its segment.

Toyota Motor Thailand has recently introduced a new variant of Hilux - the Hilux Vigo Pre-Runner VN Turbo. Pre-Runner variants are basically 4x2 models with a raised "4x4 looking" body (base model 4x2 models ride lower). Pre-Runner models are targeted mainly at urban Thais, who don't need 4x4 drivetrain and prefer a lower running cost of a 4x2 model but yet none of the cheap workhorse image of a standard low rider 4x2 model. VN Turbo is short for Variable Nozzle Turbo. Available in both 2.5 litre (2KD-FTV with intercooler) and 3.0-litre guise (1KD-FTV with intercooler).




The VN Turbo engine is a Euro 3 diesel emission standard engine, thus it is tuned to run on EU3 compliant diesel. Until our supply of diesel fuel is upgraded to EU3, we will not be seeing this engine in Malaysia anytime soon.

Also included are new features including cruise control, electric driver seats, electric folding wing mirrors and the most important of all - vehicle stability control. The specs level is so high that one might even consider it as a pseudo luxury "urban truck."

About 2 years back a Swedish magazine Teknikens Värld put the Hilux to a "moose test" (also known as elk test), in which the Hilux failed miserably as the Hilux nearly flipped over. The most stable truck tested was the Mitsubishi Triton. Toyota Motor Europe was quick to respond, dismissing the results and blamed it on the tires used. I understand that in some markets, sales of the Hilux was suspended temporarily.

The test brought back memories of infamous 1997 Mercedes-Benz A-class fiasco. Like the Hilux, the A-class responded very dangerously. Mercedes was very quick to respond and issued a safety recall for all A-class sold worldwide to have them fitted with electronic stability control (ESC) for free. Toyota however, did nothing similar but laid low and let the issue quiet down gradually. Of course, A LOT MORE Hilux were sold around the world compared to the A-class. The cost of a recall would be far too costly to bear. Plus, fitting ESC / ESP on a truck is still unheard of.

The elk / moose test is a popular test conducted in temperate climate countries, especially Canada and Scandinavia, where collisions with large animals wandering across rural roads is a real danger. Crashing into a small cat / dog or even a deer is one thing. Crashing into a huge elk / moose is another thing altogether. Being Scandinavians, you would expect a brand like Volvo to pay particular attention in this area.


However, within the short period of time there have been a lot of discussion amongst governments of developed countries on ESC fitment. Australia, another market with a significant number of trucks (as well as the Aussie favourite car-based trucks; utes) is already mulling on compulsory fitment of ESC on trucks, utes as well as commercial vans. Many Aussies have criticised their government's current exemption of commercial vehicles from the new 2011 compulsory ESC fitment ruling, saying that the move likens treating lives commercial vehicle drivers and their families as second-class. ESC fitment on passenger cars is already compulsory from 2011 onwards in Europe and Australia. In Thailand, Hilux will be the first truck to come fitted with ESC (or VSC in Toyota lingo). Hopefully more truck makers will follow suit.

Related link
Hilux heads to South Pole
Hilux Minor Change launched

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Thoughts before NAP review announcements



BANGKOK, Aug 14 — Malaysia expects to finalise the review of its three-year-old National Automotive Policy (NAP) by the end of September, taking into account various automotive policies worldwide, especially the success story of Thailand's automotive industry.

International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Mustapa Mohamed said Thailand, regarded as the "Detroit of Asia", has a good automotive policy and was much advance than Malaysia despite starting late.
Read more here.

If I were to interview this candidate named "Malaysia", my question will be - what do you want to be when you grow up? And what do you think is your identity?

The question that we all should be asking is not about how will we liberalise the auto sector. The right question should be are we still serious about building our own homegrown car? There is no clear direction on how we want to develop the industry further and where do we go from here. While those goons in the cabinet ponder and debate, car companies and auto parts suppliers have pretty much made up their mind.

Malaysia have two homegrown car companies - Proton and Perodua. Proton's operations started in 1985 with Mitsubishi Motors as its technical partner. Perodua, on the other hand started operations in 1993 under a joint venture with Daihatsu and Mitsui, both are affiliated companies of Toyota Motor Co. (TMC), the world's largest and richest car company. On paper, the government claims that neither Proton / Perodua no longer receive any form of tax exemption from the government, thus making the competition field level for all local and foreign car companies. However receive, they both receive substantial assistance from the Industrial Adjustment Fund (IAF), and many argued that criteria to receive the fund are tailored to Proton's advantage because of the way IAF rebates are calculated - which is based on the total investment made by car companies in R&D activities, and these can be back-dated until the early days of Proton. With most foreign car companies doing almost zero R&D here (most are merely vehicle assembly activities), of course a large chunk of the rebates goes back to Proton.

Proton developed its first homegrown model - the Waja / Impian in 2001. Unlike Proton, there is no indication on whether Perodua is keen or is even planning to develop a homegrown model. And this is my main gripe against the current NAP. For all its flaws, Proton made Malaysia among 15 plus countries in the world that are able to design and build a car from scratch. It is difficult to agree on the exact number because countries like Finland and Netherlands might not have their own car brands but these countries are home to many automotive engineering consulting firms. But in the case of Perodua, I find it difficult to accept that the public tax money is being spent to subsidize the largest and the richest car company in the world. Because this is exactly what we are doing with Perodua. Proton built its own homegrown model on its 18th year of operation. We are now on Perodua's 16th year of operation. How serious is Perodua in training its engineers to design a car from scratch, to train up the local managers and executives in running a world class car company or invest in the necessary facilities fitting of a true car manufacturer status company rather to continue following the directions of their Japanese masters?

Yes I am aware that officially, Perodua as a group is a majority Malaysian owned company, and that Daihatsu and Mitsui only controls the manufacturing arm of Perodua. But try to probe deeper into the organization. Is Perodua really a local company or is it a Japanese subsidiary operating behind a Malaysian front? They might have a local MD by the name of Syed Hafiz as the human face of Perodua for all the public relation duties. But titles can sometimes be misleading. You wouldn't be naive enough to think that the local MD wields more control than the senior-middle Japanese expats from Daihatsu whom Perodua relies on for all its current and future models right? So are all the key business decisions made in the interest of Malaysian car industry or in the interest of TMC? Yes some might argue that neither is Proton making business decisions in the interest of the local car industry, given that UMNO probably has more say than Proton's board, albeit indirectly and via the state owned investment arm and Proton's majority shareholder Khazanah Nasional. But two wrongs don't make a right and lets just put that aside for now.

With the NAP in its current form, what we are doing is literally subsidize Toyota, the largest and richest car company in the world, to sell their cars in Malaysia via their subsidiary Daihatsu, under a different badge with slightly different exterior styling. And why does Toyota require any assistance from the tax paying Malaysian public? The early model Peroduas were all previous generation Daihatsu models that were no longer on sale in Japan. So the initial investment in tooling and development cost for these products have all been recouped / amortized. When these designs (Kancil, Kelisa, Kembara, Rusa) were given to Perodua, all the initial cost have been written off. And since Toyota and Daihatsu share many of the same key components (i.e. 3SZ-VE engine on Nautica, Rush, Avanza 1.5, upcoming Perodua MPV and K3-VE engine on Myvi and Avanza 1.3) and all these parts come from the same factory in Japan, we are helping TMC group to achieve greater economics of scale. So how much money have we sent back to Toyota via Daihatsu since Perodua's inception? Yes Proton had a similar arrangement with Mitsubishi earlier, but the difference is there was a clear ambition for Proton to develop a homegrown model. Perodua however seems pretty content relying on Daihatsu. And why should the principal TMC group do anything further to push Perodua to develop their own model when it gets to control both the non-national and national car segment, albeit indirectly and under two different brands (Perodua and Toyota).

The Indian government had made some similar comments on Maruti, which a sort of Indian version of Perodua, but with Suzuki rather than Daihatsu. In a very extreme case of selling a way out dated product, Maruti sells a model called the Maruti 800, which is a rebadged Suzuki Alto from 1984! Over the 2 decades of Maruti's partnership with Suzuki, Maruti got very little out of the deal as all the high precision engineered parts like transmission and engine continue to be imported from Japan. There was very little technology transfer to India. Building on the strength of Tata, which is rapidly gaining recognition around the world, the Indian government is starting to be more assertive and is pushing for homegrown brands like Tata, Mahindra, REVA to pursue new technologies that are not yet dominated by Western companies (i.e. electric vehicles). Reva currently sells EVs in Europe and Tata's Indica EV is on track to Norway's first mainstream EV under a deal with a Norwegian hydroelectric power company.

JVs are only temporary and are good to provide a starting ground for a new company. But without a clear plan to develop homegrown products, any form of government initiated JV is pointless and we will end up at the losing end. In the early days, Proton paid huge sums of royalty payment for the rights to use Mitsubishi designs and engines. Proton started operations with a group of hand picked government linked technocrats, who were far from being the best negotiators around. Proton ended up paying a lot more for what the deal is worth in exchange for engines which are almost hopeless for export purposes because it doesn't meet many exhaust emission regulations around the world.

There are no free lunch in this world and unless Perodua is serious about becoming a true manufacturer capable of building their own cars and moving Malaysia's auto industry up the value chain, it will be pointless to continue extending privileges to them. If the net result is same as that of a regional assembly hub (like Thailand's model), why not extend the privileges to all who are willing to invest in building affordable, fuel efficient city cars in Malaysia? Why keep the privilege exclusive only to Perodua, to the benefit of TMC in amortizing their investments?

China is a good example in managing car industry JVs to their own advantage. All foreign car companies who wish to operate in China must partner with a local company. And these companies are all very hungry for Western designs and intellectual properties, which sometimes created some very tense situations with their foreign partners who would accuse them of stealing their IP rights and putting them into their own cars. It is far from being ethical but what I am trying to point out here is the huge difference between domestic brands in China who are extremely hungry to develop their own cars, and contrast that to our local equivalents. Domestic Chinese car companies are not contented with just sitting around, being given design and assembly rights to build other people's cars. If they lack having an illustrous brand history - they go out and buy Western brands, if they lack the technology - they form JVs, on top of stealing Western designs but then again do remember that Ferdinand Porsche did exactly the same thing in designing the VW Bettle. If they lack good design - they contract Italian design houses to do the job. This is should be ideal the direction local /domestic JV partners to proceed to the next level, after having receive government protection / assistance from outside competition.

Laugh at Chinese cars at your own peril. Newer models from Chery, Brilliance and Roewe suggests that China's domestic brands are progressing very rapidly away from being cheap imitators. Chery was one of GM China's former partner while Brilliance is BMW China's JV partner and Roewe is owned by SAIC, which is GM China's current partner.

In short, for all the "assistance" the government provides to domestic brands like Proton and Perodua - there has to be a clear goal on what are we, the people, getting out of these in exchange for the handicap given. Else it will only serve to further widen our budget deficit for no apparent social benefit.

There are many other thoughts that I would like to get it organize and put it down here. But this will do for today.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Continental and Schaeffler merger stalls





Porsche is not the only company whose ambition became too big for its own good ended up being the target of a reverse takeover. Almost overnight, gambled away, and lost its highly prized status as the only independent sports car company in the world by trying to take over Volkswagen; a company many times bigger than Porsche.

Porsche is not the only company that courted such a fate. Earlier, this blog posted a story regarding Schaeffler's attempt to take over Continental, a company 3 times the size of Schaeffler. Continental had just completed a merger with Siemens VDO and had a lot of debts to finance, the credit crunch made things worse and made Continental vulnerable. Schaeffler had quietly purchased Conti's stocks via proxies in the open market.

Like Porsche, Schaeffler's attempt was debt financed. I quote from Automotive News Europe :
Despite buying 90 percent of Conti's stock, Schaeffler could easily lose control of its intended prey and may end up being swallowed by it.

Following the bid battle, Schaeffler holds a 49.9 percent direct stake in Conti. A further 39.36 percent is held by Schaeffler's banks -- Sal Oppenheim and Metzler -- in a sort of warehousing deal to reflect the fact that Schaeffler does not actually have the money to buy all of Conti. Schaeffler has signed an agreement that it will not increase its stake above the current 49.9 percent level prior to August 2012.

This leaves Schaeffler in an awkward spot. It cannot consolidate Conti and the two companies continue to be run as separate units in an uncomfortable stand-off. Conti is not paying a dividend, meaning that Schaeffler can only finance the stake out of its own earnings. Meanwhile, Conti's share price has fallen sharply from the 75 euros Schaeffler paid a year ago to about 25 euros (about $35.50) now.


At the moment, both Continental and Schaeffler continue to operate as separate companies (negating any benefits of combined purchasing power of a merged company) and there is no clear direction on where will the two companies go from here. Today, Continental's CEO Karl-Thomas Neumann was forced out after a bitter board room struggle between Continental and Schaeffler. Neumann will be replaced by Elmar Degenhart, formerly from Schaeffler's automotive business division. More on that here.

The takeover attempt was engineered by Schaeffler's matriach Maria-Elisabeth Schaeffler, and like Wendelin Weideking's case with Porsche, nobody really know what was their motivation behind the move. Both are really brilliant people. The only logical explanation for Weideking is that he realised Porsche can no longer remain independent by just making 80,000 plus sports cars and Cayennes etc etc a year. The current growing environmental legislation and increasing vehicle development cost meant that Porsche will have to partner with a mainstream company if it wants to survive, which due to historical ties will most likely be Volkswagen. But Porsche can't survive based on ad-hoc joint developments with VW on a model-model basis (i.e. VW Touareg-Porsche Cayenne). Thus explains the takeover attempt.

Schaeffler is a predominantly mechanical parts supplier - specialising in bearings and transmission components. But mechanical parts are increasingly becoming a cheap commodity that new competitors from China and India can easily muscle their way in with their low cost products. Plus, cars are becoming increasingly reliant on electronics - powertrain controls, safety, hybrid and electric vehicle control systems, navigation, climate control etc etc. Schaeffler needs to move upmarket to adapt itself to this new trend. Continental is also a leading supplier in hybrid vehicle electronic components. It supplies the battery packaging, cooling and power control modules for the Mercedes S400 Bluehybrid - the world's first lithium ion battery production hybrid car. The current sweeping wave of hybridisation and electrification of automotive powertrain provides automotive part suppliers a once in a lifetime chance to turn the tables around in their relationship with automakers. Taking control of Continental allows Schaeffler to quickly gain access to intellectual properties and manufacturing facilities to penetrate into the electronic vehicle control systems business.

At the moment, suppliers are increasingly being pressured to lower their cost while still meeting increasingly tough engineering specifications. Battery technology and hybrid / electric cars is the disruptive technology here. None of the established car makers have a clear lead here and all of them rely on their parts supplier partners. The unwritten game plan for automotive parts makers is to take the lead in creating a standardised format / technology to be adopted by all. Preferably an off the shelf component package that can be easily adapted to any hybrid / electric vehicle application. Whoever that manages to direct the automotive parts industry in this direction will be able to dictate more favourable terms to their business, rather than continue to be pressured by automakers. And only you can only do that is by exercising sheer might and size. Currently, every car maker is doing their own thing with their own partners. This cannot be viable in the long term. Like any manufactured components - you need volume, and to do volume you need standardisation. Can you image if Energizer and Duracell were to produce two different battery size form factors. Are you going to produce many different types of torchlights for all the different batteries? Some square some round etc etc. Or car tires don't have a standard measurement / form factor? Obviously the current practise cannot work in the long term and a common standard must emerge from this.

Of course, nobody knows the actual reason behind these decisions other than Weideking and Schaeffler themselves. The above are purely this author's speculation.

2010 Hyundai Tucson Full Model Change



Click to enlarge.
The new Hyundai Tucson / ix35 will be premiered globally in the 2009 Frankfurt Motor Show, on Sept 15 2009. European press suggest that the engine line-up will include a turbocharged petrol and a diesel engine. A 6-speed automatic transmission, first seen in Hyundai's flagship Grandeur / Azera (before the Genesis launch) should also be included, though it is hard to say this new transmission will be available to Tucson models globally. Hyundai's current flagship, the Genesis was already too far ahead in its development schedule to have the unit included. Instead the Genesis uses a ZF unit for its V8 models and a Aisin unit for its V6 models.

Hyundai is among the only 3 car companies in the world to have develop a 6-speed transaxle transmission in-house (the other being Toyota and a GM-Ford JV). Other maker's 6-speed transmission units are sourced from transmission specialists like ZF Friedrichshafen or Getrag. Another interesting thing is that Hyundai's new transmission is said to be maintenance free - it has no dipstick and the automatic transmission fluid is said to last the "lifetime of the car" to reduce maintenance cost. Sidetrack from the Tuscon - this is something which I have yet to understand. An engineer acquaintance specialising in lubricants for heavy machineries told me that in his career he has yet to come across lubricants that don't breakdown and lasts a lifetime. The keyword here is what is the designed lifespan of the vehicle? European companies generally consider it as 10 years plus. I need to stress that this is not a criticism against Hyundai's transmission but regarding this new trend of maintenance free, lasts a lifetime lubricants, extended service intervals that on some car models goes until 30,000km before requiring an oil change.

Back to the Tuscon, it is quite likely that the Tucson name will be dropped inline with HMSB's new naming convention - following an i prefix for all its newer models. The x is supposed to denote crossover / cross-country capable vehicles. Not that there is any risk in dropping the Tucson badge. There isn't much positive association by the general public on the Tucson badge anyway. Now that the local Hyundai's earlier chaotic dual channel sales operation (Kah Bintang and Hyumal) have all been rationalised under HMSB. This should put a stop to Kah Bintang's ridiculous accessories package, whose poor taste and low quality tacky chrome bits, tacky rear spoilers with fake third brake lights is often subject of ridicule.

Image from Hyundai Blog, via IAB.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Ssangyong Strike




Labour disputes have always characterised South Korean industrial relations. Strikes and protests by workers are a regular affair there. Even so, Ssangyong Motors probably has the dubious honour of having the angriest workers. For almost 75 days, Ssangyong's plant in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi looked more like a war zone than a car plant - with angry workers setting cars on fire, firing metal parts from handmade slingshots to police, helicopters dropping tear gas and police trucks firing water cannons on striking workers. The source of the dispute is laying off of 976 plant workers. Earlier this year, Ssangyong's principal owners Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp (SAIC) gave up on the company and put the company up on receivership, despite numerous appeals from the South Korean government.





Creditors from South Korean banks that assumed control of the company demanded that at least 2,500 staffs be laid off, which is about a third of its workforce. A large majority of the staff took voluntary separation payments or unpaid leave but the last 1000 of them decided to stage a protest by occupying the paint factory.

Though a compromise has been reached between the workers and the management, a strong distrust between workers and the company meant that the quality of Ssangyong vehicles will continue to suffer. Angry people can never make good cars.


The local distributor of Ssangyong is not doing very well either. Competive Supreme has just closed down their Bangsar outlet. The company is bogged down by one set of bad luck (or bad decision?) after another. Its subsidiary Brookland Motors was setup right before MG-Rover collapsed, it invested in CKD operations for the Rexton II at a time when interest in SUVs are slowly waning, they took over the showroom along Federal Highway formerly occupied by Peugeot (when it was under Cycle and Carriage) and decorated it full of Ssangyong branding materials - and then proceeded to display the Citroen cars (investing in distributorship of Citroen vehicles is another decision that is difficult to comprehend) in the showroom.
From WSJ.

Monday, August 10, 2009

A short history of F1 safety cars, and the Porsche link





We all saw the freak accident that nearly took the life of F1 World Champion contender Felipe Massa during the recent Hungarian GP. He have the well trained track marshalls and the fast acting medical crew to thank. Massa is still not out of the woods yet as doctors have yet ascertain if he could still race in the future.

The fast acting track marshalls, the Medivac helicopter on standby for emergency air transfer, the very fast medical car driven by a very capable racing driver carrying a medical doctor that raced to the scene of the accident almost immediately - the history of these can be traced back more than 30 years ago to a Porsche test driver by the name of Herbet Linge, who joined Porsche at the age of 15 as an apprentice mechanic. Linge was also Porsche's first employee in the post-war era, when the company moved to its current headquarters location in Stuttgart. By the 1950s, Linge was not only a regular test driver at Porsche's Weissach test track, but also a regular driver for the Porsche works racing team, participating in various European road and circuit races including the Mille Miglia (in a Spyder), Nurburgring 500km, Targa Florio and also Le Mans, all under the works Porsche team.



The young Herbert Linge and Hans Herrmann in the 1954 Mille Miglia.

Herbert Linge (left) explaining a cylinder head to the late Dr. Ferdinand Porsche.

Motor racing in those days were a lot more dangerous and death among fellow racers is a regular occurrence. The cars might sometimes go pass the site of an accident twice before an ambulance actually arrives. As was the case of Nikki Lauda's fiery crash in Nurburgring of 1976, it was fellow drivers Arturo Merzario, Guy Edwards and Harald Ertl who stopped their cars and fought through the flames to pull Lauda out. Track marshalls and ambulance were nowhere to be seen during those critical moments. Yes racing was a lot more dangerous back then, but so was the standard of sportsmanship and camaraderie of the fellow racers who looked out for each other.


Herbert Linge today.

Horrified by the regular loss of life on track, Herbert Linge proposed an idea of a "safety car." The safety car is to be equipped with fire fighting equipment, a doctor and a very quick driver in a very fast car that could reach the site of an accident very fast. It was probably the start of the first official safety car in any motor racing event. Due to his connections with Porsche, in 1972, Linge managed to convince Porsche to provide him a car - a 914/6, driven by Linge himself.


The car was nothing as fancy as today's AMG tuned Mercedes-Benz models, with blinking strobe lights and fancy decals. Instead it looked like a regular Porsche 914/6, complete with vehicle registration plate, parked at the side of a track. Bernie Ecclestone saw the car and was quickly bought over by the idea and requested for a "safety car" to be introduced in F1 in the soonest. For the first three years, Herbert Linge served as the driver, with the very well known British neurosurgeon and motor racing medical specialist Professor Sid Watkins in the car. Linge also founded the Deutscher Motor Sport Bund, which was the world's first mobile track marshalling crew, a precursor to today's FIA trained and certified track marshalls in all FIA sanctioned motorsports event.

Professor Sid Watkins would later push for various other improvements, including a "medical car," which will follow the field of cars from behind throughout the the first lap to be able to quickly attend to any "first lap / first corner" incident.

The mere mention of the name Bernie Ecclestone and Max Mosley might not win you many friends among the F1 fraternity (except for maybe from the Ferrari team), but credit where credit is due, Ecclestone and Mosley have contributed much in putting order in motorsports and raising the standards of driver safety. Of course, there were also many contributions from Nikki Lauda and Sir Jackie Stewart, two former world champions who were once victims for near fatal motor racing accidents.

2009 F1 season Medical Car and Safety car.

Safety car - Mercedes SL 63 AMG, driven by former DTM driver Bernd Mayländer.



Medical car - Mercedes C63 AMG, driven by Alan van de Merwe and a medical doctor co-driver Dr. Gary Hartstein.


The odd thing is that Porsche's contribution in this area of F1 safety is rarely mentioned, not even in Porsche's own history achieves. Even Porsche's own recognition to the work of Herbert Linge during their 60th anniversary celebration made no mention of this. I only learned about all these from various classics and motoring history publications.

Related link :
The Forgotten "Other" World Champion

Friday, August 7, 2009

The end of Wiedeking-era Porsche




It's been a really hectic month for this author. The current economic crunch is pretty much a zero sum game for most salaried workers. If you get laid off you are thrown out to the street. If you do survive the headcount slashing you end up working a lot more than your fair share, with the same remuneration or less. Anyway let's hope things will settle into a more predictable rhythm in the coming weeks.

Biggest news in the past few weeks - Wendelin Wiedeking's departure from Porsche. It is such an irony that the same man who was responsible in rescuing from near bankruptcy, pulling it away from those corporate vultures in the form of private equity funds group that were circling Porsche in the late-80s, ended up biting more than he can chew by attempting to engineer a takeover of Volkswagen. Under Wiedeking's leadership, Porsche remained the only independent sports car company in the world while at the same time became the world's most profitable car company.

I have a lot of respect for Wiedeking as the boss of a car company. Unlike the typical German boss, Wiedeking is more willing to learn from those outside his own cultural sphere. One of the cornerstone in the turning around of Porsche's fortune in the 90s is Porsche's adoption of Toyota's famed Toyota Production System in their plants and vehicle development. There aren't many German bosses who are willing to go that far in admitting the superiority of their Asian counterparts. Until today, those German boys from Stuttgart or Munich are willing to admit to the rivalry of their fellow countrymen but are quite sensitive to being compared to the senseis from Nagoya (think Lexus). However I need to stress that this is not a criticism directed particularly to the German race. Japanese bosses too, expect to be treated like they are of a superior race and that they have nothing else to learn from others, especially when dealing with their less developed Asian neighbours. The issue is more about pride and ego rather than ethnicity.

Wiedeking showed that he is not one who is bounded by the typical "Zis is how wee do it" German superiority when he recognised the chronic inefficiency of Porsche's plants and the lack of commonality amongst 80s era developed Porsche models, he sent his engineers to Japan to learn from TPS trainers and hired consultants from Toyota to retool Porsche's factories and rationalise their new model development.

When he pushed hard to have the Cayenne SUV approved by Porsche's board, I have to admit that even I myself was skeptical. An SUV Porsche? Won't that be detrimental to the brand? Today, the sales figures speak for themselves as nearly half of Porsche's total sales are contributed by the Cayenne. Sure the minority purist Porsche-philes may moan and cry, but the reality is that without money from models like Cayenne and Boxster, and now the Panamera, Porsche can never hope to continue developing its iconic 911.

Wiedeking said this in an interview with Businessweek some years back.
Q: A lot of auto makers are seeking to stretch their brands, such as Volkswagen with the upmarket Phaeton, or BMW going downstream with the 1 Series. How does one successfully manage the risk of stretching the brand or moving into new product sectors that don't fit the company's brand image?
A: You have to make sure every decision to go into a new segment isn't destroying the brand image -- that's the core of the company's future potential. A lot of big players are going into new segments -- it's not easy to get right. It's especially difficult. You can try to find out what the market wants through a lot of surveys around the globe. But on the other hand, you have to have the management skills in the organization. People who know the brand and make decisions. At the end of the process, only a few people make the final decision.


From his answers, I take it as he is a very rare breed of managers who are able to read between / beyond market research data. Mediocre managers make decisions by completely relying on hard data, using it as a crutch for poor decision making skills rather than as a support to guide business decisions. Good managers have a very instinctive understanding of their customers and their brand and able to read beyond the numbers. Hard data is only as good as the one who reads them.

Models like Cayenne, Boxster-Cayman and Panamera were very risky decisions made by Wiedeking that paid of huge returns. Now that Porsche is part of the greater VW, it is unlikely that we will continue to see the sort of controversial management decisions being made. Wiedeking is an unconventional manager. Businessweek calls him is loud, outspoken and boorish, while successor Michael Macht is described clean-shaven, sophisticated and quiet. Macht is an equally talented manager, he was after all Wiedeking's right hand man, but he is not the sort of fighter Wiedeking was and is unlikely to do anything that will cross VW's supremo Ferdinand Piech and the rest of VW's executive supervisory board. Independence was something fiercely defended by Wiedeking when he was Porsche's CEO, specifically because of these reasons. At the moment, Macht is seen as a very capable technocrat whom VW will trust completely in keeping the financial wheels of Porsche oiled and turning. But he is not the same kind of visionary like Wiedeking, and it was a visionary like Wiedeking who transformed Porsche into what it is today - the world's most successful sports car maker.

Michael Macht.

The above is just my opinion. I also came across a very interesting editorial by the editor of Automobilwoche, a German auto industry publication.

Porsche must be like Audi. By Guido Reinking, editor of Automobilwoche
For not a few Porsche drivers, the thought of owning a car from Volkswagen is a frightening one.
Being a small, independent automaker has been as much a part of the brand's image in the Wiedeking era as the six-cylinder boxer engine, the sound of a Porsche turbo, and the ignition keys on the left side of the steering column.

It's being the David who shows the Goliaths of the world what he can do.

That's all over. Gone. History. From now on, David is working in Goliath's sports car department.
That's one more result of Wendelin Wiedeking's and Holger Haerter's strategy: They turned an ailing sports car company into the world's most profitable automaker and then drove it to the edge of the abyss with their attempt to acquire VW.

At the end, Porsche found itself precisely back where Wiedeking found it in 1992: caught in a trap, floundering helplessly, dependant on outside help.

Seventeen years ago, the rescue succeeded under its own power. In 2009, however, Wiedeking gambled away all the company's independence. Anyone who finds Wiedeking's and Haerter's departure unjust should bear that in mind.

What is to become of Porsche? The brand's fans shouldn't grieve for it.

Audi's example reveals the success that is possible under the VW roof. The Ingolstadt automaker is now overtaking BMW and Mercedes. It has become the most desirable brand in the premium segment.

Porsche must do what Audi has been doing: Defend its independence where the essence of its brand requires, but seek cooperation everywhere that makes sense operationally.
The appointment of Michael Macht as Wiedeking's successor should not be overlooked as a signal that VW and Ferdinand Piëch, its supervisory board chief, really don't want to bypass Porsche's management.

From his position on the Porsche supervisory board, Piëch could have propelled a close associate to the company's top job.

Instead, a dyed-in-the-wool Porsche exec was named. He was even part of Wiedeking's inner circle. The signal is clear: Porsche will stay Porsche, and it won't be just an extension of VW operations. If there is anything that Wolfsburg doesn't need right now, it's a candidate for restructuring.

The auto industry is still mired in the most difficult crisis of its history. Weak demand and high development costs will continue to burden VW's cash reserves for a long time. 
Even at this early stage, that's the reason VW needs a strong subsidiary in Stuttgart. One like Audi.