Case Against Data Driven Design / Management

This is not exactly automotive related, but it does touch upon how many products, including cars are developed. Mega corporations, particularly Japanese are known to be extremely reliant on statistics data from their very extensive market research and car clinics. Almost every single decision in the throughout the product planning and vehicle development stage is based upon market research data. Objectively, there is nothing wrong with that.

But there is another school of thought who believed that data is only as good as the people who read it. And data can always be manipulated in certain ways and be taken entirely out of context to please the senior management of a company. At its worse case, market data is often used as an excuse for lack of creative thought or willingness to change.

I came across this interesting article, forwarded to me by a friend who works in the energy sector but complains of the same problem with data driven management.

Reduce each decision to a simple logic problem. Remove all subjectivity and just look at the data. Data in your favor? Ok, launch it. Data shows negative effects? Back to the drawing board. And that data eventually becomes a crutch for every decision, paralyzing the company and preventing it from making any daring design decisions.

Yes, it’s true that a team at Google couldn’t decide between two blues, so they’re testing 41 shades between each blue to see which one performs better. I had a recent debate over whether a border should be 3, 4 or 5 pixels wide, and was asked to prove my case. I can’t operate in an environment like that. I’ve grown tired of debating such minuscule design decisions. There are more exciting design problems in this world to tackle. Read more here.

Granted, the author is from a design background and is more likely to find such environment stiffling. Google has been a case studies for almost every top business school. But like all large companies, the bigger a company gets the higher the stakes. Business leaders tend to rather stay within the comfort zone and make every decision purely on hard data.

But think about it this way, Apple didn't went through a series of product clinics to come out with the iPod. Data driven design gave you the Corolla. Creative thought and risk taking gave you the iPod (and iPhone). Both are really brilliant products that formed the core of both Toyota and Apple. But which would you rather see more?

Also market data is only good at telling things that people already know, but are lousy at trying out new ideas and design. Can you imagine what would happen if BMW were to allow market data to dictate their vehicle designs? When those flame surfacing came out, everyone poo poo-ed them. But now almost every manufacturer is aping them in one way or another. I also remember the outgoing CEO of Honda Malaysia Atsushi Fujimoto said when asked why white was not offered as a colour option for the City. His reply was that their market data showed no significant interest in the colour, which was rather odd given that white was never offered on any Honda car locally in the first place.

Cultural norms are another issue with market research data. Truthfulness of survey / car clinic respondents differ from country to country. Asian cultures, particularly may not be so direct in criticising an idea / product, but they do show their displeasure when it comes to the actual purchase process. And to some managers, they will read the data as country A is more receptive to this than country B, when in actual fact it is a case of failing to look at data in a right cultural context. The product still sucks badly in both countries.

Safety items like ESP and seatbelts would not be invented in the first place if Mercedes-Benz and Volvo relied purely on market data. People naturally do not know that they need / appreciate until someone comes out in the market and shows it to them. Which is why Toyota will continue to invent ever more fancy airbags, because that's what customers want - something big and dramatic to blow up in their face.


While Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volvo will include multi-stage intensity brake lights and hazard lights that flashes under emergency braking and blind spot indication system to prevent people from crashing in the first place! Even when nobody is telling them that they need this.

Brawn GP

I believe by now everyone should have already know the results of the first F1 race in the 2009 season. Just some thoughts - did Ross Brawn just proved that a plump man who likes to eat bananas can put together a winning F1 team in one year, better than Honda can in 3 years, despite its immense resources?



So did Honda made a wrong decision to sell off Honda F1 team to Ross Brawn?

Mike Gascoyne, during his tenure at Toyota F1 have once vented out his frustration on the poor performance of Toyota F1 by blaming it on the bureaucratic and hierarchial organizational structure of Japanese companies. In Formula One, critical decisions need to be made fast but the way Toyota is structured meant that many critical decisions have to be relayed back to its corporate head office in Japan, where it will go through a series of consensus seeking and paper sign-off. By the time a decision is made, their competitors have already moved on to something else. Needless to say, the Japanese bosses at Toyota didn't took Mike's comments very well and he was unceremoniously removed from the team.

But Toyota is not alone, I believe the same thing happened in Honda F1 prior to Ross Brawn's entry. Despite their immense financial resources, neither Honda and Toyota have been able to "buy" any significant race results. Privateer teams like Williams-Toyota, operating at less than a quarter of the factory backed team's budget, have until 2007, achieved better results on a shoe string budget.

This is however is not exactly a criticism towards Japanese company management, but rather it is a case of a different type game requiring a different game plan. Everyone acknowledges the lead of Japanese manufacturers in the game of building and selling cars. Racing however, is an entirely different matter.

Formula One is ran by people who know eat, drink, sleep and dream F1. People like Frank Williams, Peter Sauber, Ron Dennis. Not a committee of managers or some CEO in suit and tie.


One has to wonder if the bosses at Honda Motor Co. are kicking themselves in the butt for selling Honda F1 to Ross Brawn. After-all, much of the early work on the BGP 001 was done with Honda's resources. But they can't claim any credit now - the car is now powered by a Mercedes-Benz engine. And Honda F1 has almost no race victory results to show off prior to Ross Brawn coming onboard.

So Honda has just been proven that a greying hair plump man who eats a bit too much bananas can do a better job than the entire Honda Motor Co.'s massive financial and engineering resources was able to. If Honda wishes to buy back the team then they will have to outbid British billionaire Sir Richard Branson of Virgin Group. Branson has just announced Virgin's interest to purchase the team in the near future.

One of Honda's marketing tagline for the factory backed motorsports activities in the region is "Reasons to Exist," implying that motorsports is at the core of Honda's brand values. But Ross Brawn has just implied that this is nothing more than just a marketing tagline. Private F1 teams and individuals like Ross Brawn are the real "reasons to exist" guys in motorsports. This is the only life they knew.


Yes Honda might built good sports oriented cars and bikes, but when it comes down to the business and discipline of managing a racing team - it is much better for Honda to just remain as an engine supplier.

Also, I wonder if its just coincidental that the poor performance of both McLaren and Ferrari comes after the departure of former team principals Ron Dennis and Jean Todt (and Technical Director Ross Brawn), the very men who built the teams up from the mess they were previously in.

A team is only as good as its people. The former Ferrari dream team - "second driver" Rubens Barichello, Technical Director Ross Brawn, Team Principal Jean Todt and "lead driver" Michael Schumacher.

Toyota is finally seeing some results after 7 years of forgettable race seasons. But first they need to resolve the controversy surrounding their "active rear wing." Toyota might be slow to change, but they have the money. Lots of it. Despite the current economic gloom Toyota have more than enough assets and cash reserve to buy a many more car companies if it wants to. They don't call it the "Bank of Toyota" for nothing. If you keep throwing money to a problem, eventually you are bound to see some results. I guess we will be watching for long Toyota is willing to throw money into F1. Some say the Big T is like a giant oil supertanker ship, huge and slow to change its course. But when it does change course you better get out of its way because it is going to mow down anything in its path.

Related link :
Honda Bids Farewell to F1

Wicked police cars - PDRM Lancer Evolution and Carbon Motors E7

An update from a previous entry on the Royal Malaysian Police taking delivery of 25 units of Lancer Evolution police car. The set of photos below (taken in an unknown rural location) have been circulating for quite sometime, in this case, it is taken from terato.com.





But the most wicked police car in the world has to be the Carbon Motors E7 - set to go into active duty by 2012 in the United States. The E7 is the first purpose built police car. The difference between the E7 and all other police cars in active duty around the world is that the E7 is designed from the ground up to integrate all the necessary police enforcement and surveillance equipment. So there is no compromise in terms of vehicle packaging, crash safety, durability and even aerodynamics.


Among the list of equipment available on the Carbon Motors E7 are :
1. Optional armoured front doors and crash panel
2. Integrated emergency lights, beacons and search lamps.
3. Purpose-designed seat for use with on-body equipment (i.e. radio and weapons)
4. Reverse backup camera
5. 360 degrees audio visual surveillance
6. Completely separate front and rear cabin, with hoseable rear compartment
7. Integrated shotgun mounts
8. Automatic license plate recognition computer (ANPR)
9. Inline 6-cylinder force induction diesel engine
10. 6-speed automatic transmission
11. Vehicle stability programme.
12. Vehicle body integrated push bumpers

Watch the video below


Carbon Motors is a new start-up, whose management team is filled by many ex Ford Motor Co. guys. The platform is independently designed from any existing car manufacturer but it is believed that Lotus Engineering had a hand in it. BMW is also rumoured to be the engine supplier.

On a side note - an interesting comment I came across is that police forces around the world tend to be overly focused on the physical elements, the tools, fancy technology and equipment. But studies have shown that the most effective law enforcement method is the physical presence of cops walking on their patrol duty, getting themselves familiar with the regular people around the community. The Hong Kong police is an often cited as an example of this, as criminal gangs and crimes were drastically cut down in the mid 80s when police started doing more regular patrols on foot.

Two Hong Kong police officers on their patrol duties.

Cops who regularly patrol their zones on foot tend to be more sensitive to their surroundings and are more alert on any suspicious individuals and activities. The frequent sighting of police presence on foot and eye contacts is the most effective deterrent measure. More so than any cop driving around in a patrol car.
Related link
Lancer Evolution Police Car

Stupid Rich Chinese Drivers

More Chinese car jokes, but this time it has to do with their owners.

A Chinese businessman who crashed his luxury car, endorsed by a Chinese Olympic athlete Liu Xiang and injured his nose is planning to sue the Olympic hurdler.

BEIJING (Reuters Life!) - A Chinese businessman wants to sue Olympic hurdler Liu Xiang because he was injured while driving a luxury car endorsed by the world champion.

Yuan Jiguang told Jiangxi Province's New Legal Report newspaper that he had bought the car because of an advert featuring former Olympic champion Liu, and so he held the high hurdler responsible for the accident.
The 43-year-old said he had been involved in a collision with a truck, banging his nose on the windshield when the car's air bags failed to activate and ending up with a doctor's bill of 989.89 yuan ($144.8).

"Liu's advert had a great influence on my choice of car," he told the paper. "I want to send a warning message to all the celebrities that they can not only focus on the payment and neglect their social responsibility and public trust." Read more here.

If the news report is correct, you can almost bet Yuan injured his nose because he wasn't wearing a seat belt in the first place. The airbags did not failed to activate. It was designed NOT to activate under such conditions. If it had, Yuan's head would have been blown stuck to the headrest. Moron.

The news article did not mention the brand of the luxury car, but it is believed to be a Cadillac. Caddies, along with Audis are among the two best selling luxury marques in China.


Mr. Yuan is not the first moron driver to hit the news. A couple of years ago some retard by the name of Mr. Wang started the ball rolling when he tailgated his W221 Mercedes S-class at the back of a Dongfeng truck before ploughing to the rear end of the truck. He claimed that his vehicle's airbags did not activate, looking at the pictures it easy to understand why. Airbag G-force sensors are located at the front bumper, not at the A-pillars. Wang's S-class crashed into the back of a truck with a huge empty space below the bed, hitting the S-class A-pillars rather than the front impact absorbing crumple zones. China does not yet have any regulation requiring minimum ride height / protection bars to be installed around a heavy vehicle's trailer. In many countries, this is mandatory to avoid smaller vehicles / motorcyclists from "submarining" below in a collision.


Wang demanded compensation from Daimler, towed his wrecked Mercedes to the banks of Yellow River and hosted a press conference, saying that he will only buy Chinese made goods from now on. Good for him.

I guess he will be taking delivery of a Brilliance BS6 (below).



For the benefit of those illiterate and can't read the vehicle's owner's manual - for safety reasons airbags will not inflate if a vehicle is in a rollover, hit from the rear, hit a huge pothole / dropped, occupant's seat belt is not worn, child seat is detected (certain models), crash is below a certain speed. You do not want your vehicle's airbags to deploy unless it is really necessary (i.e. you are really about to die). The repair bills will be massive, involving replacement of not only the steering wheel but the entire dashboard. Also, gases used to ignite airbags are harmful and in certain cases, they may cause burns / skin irritations, and not forgetting effects of the loud explosion on your ear. Airbags are deployed by means of "controlled explosion." Why do these moron driver complain when things don't blow up in front of their face? Didn't these morons ever thought about the meaning of Supplemental Restraint System in SRS airbags mean? They are meant to work together with a seat belt!

I know the saying within the industry, laugh at Chinese cars at your own peril. But these third world country drivers need to be slower to speak and quicker to listen and not make a fool of themselves and their country.

Chinese Clone Cars

The real Honda CR-V and the Laibo S-RV.


Chery QQ vs General Motor's Chevy Spark


W203 Mercedes C-class and Geely C300

Notice that not only are they similar in their looks, but also in their model names!


The Shuanghuan Noble and Daimler's Smart ForTwo


UFO RV and Toyota RAV4


Toyota's Land Cruiser Prado and Dadi Shuttle



Shuanghuan CEO and BMW X5 (E53)



Scion xB (Toyota bB) and Greatwall Coolbear (what a name...)


BYD F8 and Mercedes CLK Cabrio

And today, BYD released another new model. It's called the Toyota Previa / Estima BYD M6.


Also, Chery will be launching two new premium / luxury brands; Riich and Rely.

If you think that the Riich logo looks suspiciously familiar, take look at Bentley "Flying B" badge below.

The first premium car to wear the Riich badge is the Riich G6.


It maybe funny to laugh at Chinese clone cars. But there are also a couple of small fact in the history of today's established car brands that many are not aware of. Check out the below.
You really think Volkswagen and Ferdinand Porsche are the creator of the the "People's car?"

The car on the left is the VW Beetle that we all know. The car on the right is the Tatra T-97. In case you didn't know, Tatra is one of the earliest car companies in the world, with a history dating back to 1850 in the Czech Republic. Austrian genius Hans Ledwinka was Tatra's star engineer. In the 1940s, Dr Fritz Todt, the German general inspector of the Autobahn network, once called the Tatra T87 was the ultimate Autobahn car. Not even Mercedes had that kind of recognition.

Tatra's could have easily been Czech's equivalent of Porsche or VW, but its history was abruptly cut short in World War II by the Nazi invasion. In the post-war years, Tatra suffered a slow death into oblivion when the company fell under Communist control.


Above is the KdF-Wagen, an early prototype for the VW Beetle. Below is the Tatra T-97, which is powered by a flat-four rear mounted engine, a configuration that Ferdinand Porsche would use in the Beetle.

To cut the long automotive history short, Adolf Hitler once called Ferdinand Porsche to a meeting in Berlin. He laid down vision of an affordable people's car. Ferdinand Porsche was under huge cost and time pressure to deliver and all his early prototypes failed to meet the necessary cost, performance and space requirements. Meanwhile, Tatra's star engineer Hans Ledwinka was working on a few small streamlined body rear engine cars. In the book "Car Wars," Ferdinand Porsche admitted that he had occasionally "looked over" the shoulders of Hans Ledwinka in designing the Beetle. Hitler would later noticed that Ferdinand Porsche's prototypes were too similar to Tatra T97, and ordered the T97 to be removed from the 1939 Berlin AutoSalon.

Tatra would eventually sue Porsche for damages, and Ferdinand was willing to settle the matter. However Hitler intervened and told Ferdinand he would "settle the matter." Czechoslovakia was later invaded by the German Nazis and production of the Tatra T97 halted. After the war had ended, Volkswagen paid Volkswagen paid Tatra 3,000,000 Deutsche Mark in compensation in 1961.

Also, everybody knows Toyota is the largest and richest car company in the world. Some even call Toyota Motor Co. the Bank of Toyota. But take a look at Toyota's first car, the Model AA.

Toyota's official history would say that the Model AA is "based on a Chrysler model." But there was never any licensing agreement between Toyoda Automatic Loom Works (before Toyota Motor Co. was created) and Chrysler. The Model AA was in fact a loose copy of the 1934 Chrysler Airflow. But of course, the resemblance is not that obvious and Kiichiro Toyoda took greater effort to differentiate the two cars.

History is written in the eyes of the victor. Just as the name Edison is often wrongly credited for the progress of electricity, when in fact James Swan was the inventor (Edison merely improved the filament material) and Nikola Tesla invented AC current while Edison fought against AC power to promote his less efficient DC power. Do you really think Marconi invented radio? Again, it was Nikola Tesla.

In other words, it's just history repeating itself. But maybe the scale of China's automotive industry and state of today's global competition have magnified these greatly.

Related link :
Top selling cars in China..
China is officially the world's largest car market.

Porsche - upcoming future models (2009 - 2012)

Kicking off a new series of product launches by Porsche is the facelifted Cayman and Boxster, first unveiled in November 2008's Los Angeles Auto Show. Export to overseas market will begin by end of March 2009.

987 generation Boxster & Cayman

Base model engine will be upgraded from 2.7-litres to 2.9-litres.
Higher range Boxster S will get a new 3.4-litre engine with gasoline direct injection, which was co-developed with the 997 generation 911 facelift's flat six unit.
Also introduced is a new gearbox - from the 911's 7-speed twin-clutch PDK "manumatic" transmission. PDK transmission replaces the previous Boxster S Tiptronic S automatic option.
An optional Lights Package includes bi-xenon headlights, dynamic curve lights and LED daytime driving lights (replaced the fog lamps).
LED tail lights will be offered as a standard.

Cayenne Diesel

Already gone on sale in Western Europe since February 2009. Overseas sales is expected to begin by April. Purist Porsche-philes might call it a blasphemy to have anything diesel powered wearing a Porsche badge, but what many didn't realise was that for the entire 2007-2008 Cayenne was breaking its own sales record, mainly due to strong demand from China, Russia and Middle East. It was the profits gained from Cayenne that is keeping Porsche afloat and free to build more 911s that we all love. So expanding Cayenne's appeal with a diesel Cayenne actually makes a lot of sense from a business point of view.

Panamera


April 2009 launch. The jury is still out on its design. But I personally find it to be quite acceptable. Some may question the logic of Porsche chasing a non-existent market. Porsche-philes threw tantrums and derided its design. But as proven by Porsche's sales performance with the Cayenne and Boxster, Porsche knows the market a lot better than many of us. There is no reason to doubt otherwise with the Panamera. The Boxster brought in a new group of buyers to the Porsche brand, and some of these will translate into future 911 owners. The Cayenne "locks" existing 911 owners who needed something more practical and also brought in a new group of buyers who want a Porsche but are not quite keen on 2-door sports car that many men with tiny weenies like. But since when anyone bought a Porsche for its looks anyway. Modern Porsches are supercars that you can use everyday. Not one of those tantrum throwing Italian exotics that need some good amount of cajoling before they are willing to start-up and get into gear. You know this will be another commercial success for Porsche. Some may attribute this to the Porsche badge, that people are willing to pay for it no matter how ugly it is. But I am more keen to think that Porsche understands very well what their customers really wants. A product planner / strategist needs shut out the noise of those loud enthusiasts and listen to those that are really buying the car.

GT3 (997 facelift)

December 2009 launch. On top of the changes made to 997-facelift, GT3 version will get the customary aero-aids improvement. A new bi-xenon headlamp is also included. Like its lesser standard 911 siblings, new direct injection engines will begin their service in the GT3s.

911 Turbo (997 facelift)
January 2010 launch. Typical aero-aids improvement over standard 911 models. Like the GT3, new direct injection engines will begin their service in the GT3s.

Second generation 2010 Cayenne

The 2010 Cayenne will have more bespoke components, meaning less rummaging through the parts bin of Volkswagen's Touareg. But it is expected to share many components with the Panamera. But both Panamera and Cayenne will still maintain their independent platforms. Read more here.

2010 GT2 "Plus"
The GT2 Plus is not the final name but a moniker used by Porsche Cars Australia MD Michael Winkler during a media session. The idea is that this will be an even more hardcore-purist interpretation of the 911, even more than the GT3, GT2 versions, but probably less extreme than those race ready and not road legal RSR models. According to Porsche, based on their experience in the early 1990s recession, it was the core of racer owners that kept the company afloat during bad times. Porsche will be using the same strategy again to the through again this time.

Cayenne Hybrid

Image is a Cayenne Hybrid Concept
November 2010 launch. Get used to the idea of a hybrid Porsche. Same logic to the Cayenne Diesel applies. Even Ferrari is going hybrid. Ferrari president Luca Cordero di Montezemolo have already confirmed that they are testing hybrid powertrains on a 599. Though this is not expected to be a conventional electric-gasoline hybrid like the ones used by Porsche, but a variation of the Kinetic Energy Recovery System (KERS, carbon fibre flywheel in a vacuum to store / recover kinetic energy) used by Ferrari F1 team. You can't expect Ferrari or Porsche to produce less than 10,000 cars a year to be exempted from those stringent EU fuel economy and CO2 emission regulations.

Panamera Hybrid


Expected launch in early 2011. It will share most of the hybrid components with the Cayenne Hybrid. Not much is known about Porsche's battery supplier but it is speculated to be Volkswagen's battery partner Sanyo. Whether will the Cayenne and Panamera hybrids use NiMh batteries or Li-ion is not confirmed, but it is unlikely that Li-ion batteries, with their thermal issues will be able to meet Porsche's demanding performance requirements.

998-series 911

More images here.
Expected launch in late 2011 as a 2012 model. Porsche’s chief designer Michael Mauer have already revealed some hints on the design for the 911's next model change. Of course, the basic 911 silhouette will remain unchanged but the car's nose and tail will have a more voluptuous design that the current model. The nose is said to need to comply with EU's pedestrian-friendly regulation. Usually this means a more bulbous and taller nose...Let's Porsche designers can harmonise these two polarising requirements. There have been rumours that in the interest of optimising aerodynamic efficiency, side mirrors will be junked in favour of rear view cameras.

Director of Product Line 911, Herr August Achleitner have also hinted that forced induction might be introduced in lesser 911 models as well, to meet the ever more stringent CO2 emission and fuel economy regulation. He has mentioned that engine capacities of "between 2.5 and 3.8 litres are possible. In his actual words, he said;

The challenge with future 911s is to meet environmental concerns while
improving performance. We are looking at many things... (including) a
turbocharger on a smaller engine (besides in the range-topping 911 Turbo). It’s
a better way of downsizing without losing the characteristics that the car has
today. And it is not as expensive as going diesel.

Diesel and hybrid 911s were ruled out though. But Herr Achleitner did suggest that there could be a possibility of Porsche exploring a compression ignition petrol engine like the DiesOtto concept for the 911.

By the way if you find the name August Achleitner sounds familiar, that's because last year he stoked controversy by saying that Porsche test drivers could not replicate the Nissan GTR's claimed 7:29 lap time on the Nurburgring Nordschleife, saying that Porsche's own Ringmeisters could not get within 25 seconds of the Nissan's claimed lap time on a stock GTR. Nissan would later cheekily reply that they are willing to give "free driver training" to Porsche test drivers, and saying that Toshio Suzuki, the man who set the lap record in the GTR was an expert in Germany's Green Hell and released a video recording proving that standard Dunlop SP Sport 600 DSST CTT tires were used in the GTR that set the lap record.

988-series Boxster and Cayman

More images here.
Expected launch by 2012. There are rumours that a four cylinder boxer engine will be used instead of the current flat six, again due to compliance with fuel economy and exhaust emission regulations. Keep in mind the Boxster's spiritual predecessor, the unloved 914 was powered by a four cylinder boxer engine as well.